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Exhibit A to that end are the two races – both comfortable victories, in Grade 2 and Grade 1 company – in one month, the final month of last year. If that’s the good news, the less good news is that Exhibit B must likely follow this weekend at the (outright excellent) Dublin Racing Festival; and Exhibit C requires him to cross the Irish channel in mid-March sans sicknote. Any horse could come down or have a heart murmur in the heat of combat; Shishkin could get beaten by Energumene; a previously unsighted dark horse could emerge in one of the novice chases (though that feels unlikely). Unlike CPS, EA has been slated to start twice and has started – and finished first – twice. He’s had an incident-free prep thus far and has jumped really well in his three chase races to date.
In 2008, Fiveforthree bridged that class chasm as a 7/1 chance in the Ballymore – now Gallagher – i.e. this race. And in 2022, The Nice Guy did likewise at 18/1 in the Spuds race. Thirty others tried and failed, though you’d have got paid out on at least six of them for a place. In other words, market wise, they’ve probably fared no worse than any other Willie cohort; which is to say losing a little bit over time and the real longshots don’t win. Best of the British could be Handstands, for Ben Pauling and former Gold Cup sponsor Tim Radford. He is an unbeaten domestic, defending a point and three hurdle scores, the most recent of which was in the Listed Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, where he beat the previous Grade 1 winner and subsequent Grade 2 second, Jango Baie.
Icing On The Cake unseated at the third in that Ludlow race having dug deep to win at Newbury on his previous outing. There are a few firms quoting double figures for his chances. This year’s fundraiser will again be centred around the Cheltenham Festival. For a donation of £25 you will get the exclusive Cheltenham preview, horses to follow direct from the Lambourn trainers plus membership for the period 11th to 19th March. Your full £25 will go directly to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust. Chef D’Oeuvre won unchallenged on desperate ground at Hereford and that piece of form is difficult to evaluate.
His form looked to have regressed through the summer but the return to soft at Haydock last time showed he is just ground dependent. She’s a proven Group performer and David Egan will be hoping he can get plenty of cover from stall four. Jarraaf is improving through the ranks and has impressed twice over this track and trip. The main threat is likely to come from the unexposed Min Huna. William Haggas’ filly was a smooth winner of a handicap at Sandown last month and should still be competitive off an 8lb higher mark.
The silks are simply the colours each jockey will wear and denote who owns each horse, and then to the right we have the age of the horse and the weight they are set to carry in the race. Weights will vary if this race is a handicap – these are races in which horses are weighted according to their past performances – but in non-handicaps most horses will carry the same. Performances are influenced by factors such as a horse’s fitness, the distance of the race and whether the ground is soft and boggy or firm and fast. You can look at a horse’s past performances to work out whether the ground conditions will suit – and it’s understanding these crucial variables that can give punters the edge. VADREAM looks a spot of value to win this for a second time.
Lantry Lady, who falls into the “could be anything” category, boasts a perfect 2-2 record over hurdles with wins on heavy ground. The 2m 4f distance should bring out more improvement in her. Although Rachael Blackmore appears to prefer Telmesomethinggirl, Jack Kennedy is a capable substitute. Both of Henry de Bromhead’s mares present each-way opportunities. It’s at this time of year that we hear plenty of “the best I’ve ever trained” bluster, and Pauling has gone on record as naming this fellow in that category.
And you have to be imaginative to see the horses lower down the lists beating the ones at the top. In that spirit, I’ll take the Brits to beat the Irish, primarily through Jpr One and Master Chewy. A maximum field of 24 horses are set to compete in this year’s renewal.
Ardkilly Witness is suited by this track and is expected to run Rathlin Rose very close. But I would want the insurance of something closer to an each way price before getting too involved. Ardkilly Witness has a 5lb pull in the weights with Rathlin Rose on their C/D form from three weeks ago, when Rathlin Rose won pretty comfortably. A ‘Mission Impossible’ handicap to finish off the festival. Native River needs to improve and in my view is too short in the market. Djakadam and Outlander have little between them on form in Ireland.
If you still think taking 7/2 is acceptable when you can get 4/1, you’re doing it wrong. The course has provided an early hunting ground for a number of national hunt legends. Multiple Grand National winners have scored at Bangor, while Gold Cup winning trio Norton’s Coin, Mr Mulligan and Denman all tasted success there before their finest hour. None of the runners with racecourse experience leap off the page, so it may be worth chancing SAINT SEGAL. His dam was a very talented hurdler in France and his half-sister has also won over timber this season, so there is hope that he could be above average.
However, I lean towards the Henry De Bromhead duo of Telmesomethinggirl and Lantry Lady. While Rachel Blackmore seems to prefer Telmesomethinggirl, Lantry Lady shows more potential for further improvement, making her the more intriguing option. 20 of the 24 winners this Bolts Up Daily century have been aged 7-9yo but there’s been an 11yo winner in 2021, a couple of 10yo winners (2007 & 2010) plus a French-bred 6yo in 2018. The three winners before the turn of the century were all 10 & 11yo’s so I’m not sure age is too much of an issue for this race.
His run in the Lockinge last time was an outstanding run, and he’s confirmed that today, so I’m thrilled. “We’ll see if anything comes out in the wash, and the one thing is, we always questioned the mile and whether that would be the end of his gauge. Whether this horse with racing has got quicker and so maybe coming back in trip might be what we need to be looking at.
Gordon also has Braeside, whose two career wins have come on heavy ground, as Profiler handily highlights. He’s slow enough for the old four-miler but probably not quick enough for this classier, shorter iteration of the race. This is a really tricky race with if’s and but’s about most of them. In the absence of a reliable option, I’ll take a chance on Heaven Help Us being trained for the day in what seem to be her favoured conditions.
The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Ayr, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Ayr last time out. How competitive is the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 13 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2022 when the race had an over-round of 111%.
Just ask those that swear by each of the above, and the countless many other race betting systems out there. At the end of the day, this is a results business, and if a system isn’t driving results, punters won’t stick with it for long. While some will sneer at systems and programmatic strategies, the proof of the pudding is always in the eating. When it comes to racing, the sheer choice on the betting front is enormous, and, frankly, a little difficult to comprehend for a beginner.
David Pipe has a terrific 8 from 75 record in the last decade in Festival handicap chases, for a small SP profit. Although most winners were clustered in the six to nine years bracket, neither youth nor experience has been a killer blow in handicap chases. Winners have emerged from across the spectrum, with the winning-most ages from a number of victories perspective being the losing-most from a betting perspective. Again, little of note here except that those novices aged nine or more running in Grade 1 novice races at the Festival have done poorly.
She beat Dinoblue last time out in a listed Mares chase giving her weight and Dinoblue looked the winner of Wednesdays Grand Annual before hitting the last 2 fences and ruining her chance, staying on strongly to finish a good second. This looks very open between the top four or five in the market, none of which would be a surprise winner. Mystical Power and Tullyhill are a coin toss for which one finishes ahead, my suspicion being that Mystical Power might edge that side bet. The former has his trainer’s long term Supreme record very much in his favour, but his trainer’s recent form very much not. On balance, unless he drifts to a double figure price, I’ll let him beat me – if he did drift he’d be playable win only, I think. Slade Steel has a top trainer and top form behind Ballyburn (who was a strong favourite for this before defecting to the Gallagher).
The hood was left off Alcala on latest start, when he was well beaten before falling two out. The headgear returns today but he is a very risky proposition. A final word on the thrilling exhibition by Un De Sceaux yesterday which crowned an outstanding day for Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh. Many had been premature in casting doubts over the Mullins yard and the early prices on offer for Un De Sceaux were value – which we took full advantage of.
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The main danger is last term’s scorer Billaway, who relishes this stamina test. He looks sure to be finishing best of all and will be many punters’ place option. Depending on your selections, you can place a variety of bet types, including singles and multiples. You can add selections straight from a Bet Builder match centre, making it simpler and quicker to place bets backed by data. CommissionYou’ll need to take into account commission paid to Betfair ranging from 2 – 5% depending on how much you bet with them.
Likely to be at least truly run, and potentially a little fast early; the winner will need to travel and jump at top speed as well as possess sufficient stamina to see it out after the last. For the final segment of this article I want to have a brief look at Grade 1 races. These races comprise 50% of the 28 Festival contests and, in the last 15 years, they have accounted for roughly the same percentage of all the Festival contests (some of the newer races being upgraded during the review period).
Master Chewy is a bit of a punt but, if ridden patiently, he might be able to pick up the pieces… And if they go a million on the front then he could just nick the whole enchilada. Of course, he’s priced as though he has little chance and that may be how it transpires.
He will have to be at his very best because he takes on two previous winners of this race. Of the rest, Rumstar has run some big races in top handicaps and has every chance of outrunning his insulting odds. The selection’s stablemate Hamish won this in 2022 and is in his element when the mud is flying. The main concern with him is that he has run poorly on his last two starts.
This is perhaps the simplest of the five differentiators. We’re looking for races where all runners are exposed; that is, they’re experienced and have shown pretty much all they have to the handicapper already. In such races, we are not expecting a progressive horse to leap forward seven to ten pounds; rather, we expect that the horse best suited to conditions will have a great chance…
Jonbon is expected to sit slightly off the fiercest of the sizzle. Rare Edition was very disappointing when only second in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, a race won in 2020 by Shishkin en route to Supreme glory. He apparently scoped dirty after the race and there has been some whispering about back spasms, both of which appear to have now been resolved.
And then, when it was all going so well, along came that King George; never going the pace there and succumbing to a couple of – these days – uncharacteristic blunders and pulling up. The favourite, at around 7/2, is A Plus Tard, whose Betfair Chase demolition job at Haydock propelled him to the top of the lists. A model of consistency, APT has yet to finish outside of the first three in 13 Rules starts. Three of those races have been at the Festival where he has the full set of medals; his only gold, mind, came in a handicap, and he’s since finished third in the 2020 Ryanair and runner up in last season’s Gold Cup. That maiden score, like his flat maiden win, was on good ground and, with the drying forecast, conditions look to be in his corner.
He’s officially top rated in the line up, on 161, and this season has run 3rd in the Munster National, won the Troytown, been 2nd in the Becher Chase and bolted up in the PP Hogan Cross Country Chase at Punchestown. He stays well, jumps well and handles most ground; the only thing I don’t like about his profile is that it’s a very un-Gordon Elliott prep for the race! That said, Tiger Roll came to the race in good form when winning his second Glenfarclas in 2019, but it’s a weird niggle I can’t quite shake. That leaves Gentleman De Mee, perhaps the most likely pace angle. The second runner for Willie Mullins and a second for JP McManus, this lad beat Edwardstone in the Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) at Aintree two years ago and won the G1 Dublin Chase of 2023, too, so he’s got plenty of class.
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